Covid-19: Worldwide Viral Infection Model
This discussion paper is part of URM Forum’s ongoing effort to help government, healthcare and business leaders build the universal dynamics engine (UDE) capabilities necessary to accurately represent all system dynamics in all cases.
Research Paper, written by URM Forum Members: Prof. Dr. Nabil Abu el Ata, D.Sc., Annie Drucbert, D.Eng., Prof. Dr. Bahira M.S. Lotfy, MD, Prof. Dr. Gehad A. Abo El-Ata, MD and Rudolf Schmandt, Dipl.Ing.
The presence of deterministic chaos within healthcare systems—meaning that the apparently-random states of disorder and irregularities are governed by deterministic laws that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—demands non-linear treatment. In such cases, URM Forum promotes the use of perturbation theory as the right foundational solution for modeling any systems that produces a large spectrum of dynamics and have an exact solution if and only if all or most individual and significant inequalities are explicitly represented in the solution.
Using this method, an accurate formulation of dynamic complexity can be provided that is representative of the web of dependencies and inequalities even in systems as complex and expansive as a global healthcare system. Additionally, our proposed methods of modeling allos for predictions that correspond to variations in initial conditions and influences of intensity patterns, which is often the case in a pandemic.
